Climate change and its implications for New Mexico's water resources and economic opportunities

              NM
STATE
UNIVERSITY
Climate Change and Its Implications for ^™""^™
New Mexico's Water Resources and Economic Opportunities
Technical Report 45
Brian H. Hurd and Julie Coonrod1
ABSTRACT
Social, economic and environmental systems in water-
scarce New Mexico and throughout the arid southwest
are vulnerable to disruptions in water supplies that are
likely to accompany future climate changes. With a
particular focus on potential economic consequences for
New Mexico, this study uses a hydro-economic model
of the Rio Grande watershed to integrate plausible
changes in climate with hydrologic responses and water
demands within a framework that optimizes water-
use allocations for the greatest economic benefit. The
study uses three climate change scenarios across two
future time periods selected to represent the range of
effects indicated by the outputs across eighteen global
climate models (GCMs) using the SRES A1B emissions
scenario. These six climate change scenarios were then
used to model runoff changes using the WATBAL hydrologic model (Yates, 1996), which integrates climate
and hydrologic variables, and to change water demand
parameters in the hydro-economic model. Primary find-
Table of Contents -
Abstract ..
Introduce
Climate Varialulm ami < h.ingc
Constructing Scenarios for Soci
Trends ami  Kast-Ink  <  hanges
Miniating llu  I l\drulogi<  and Streamflow
Changes under Climate Change
A Hydro-Economic Model of the Rio Grande
Incorporating the ( Innate < hange and
Socioeconomic Baseline Scenarios into the
Rio Grande Hydro-Economic Model (RGHE).
Endangered Species Concerns	
Assessment Results and Findings	
Streamflow and Hydrologic Assessment	
Assessment of Water Use and Economic Impacts...
Assumptions. Uncertainties, Omissions and
Other Potential Biases	
Findings and Conclusions	
Acknowledgements	
References	
ings confirm that ecosystems are at greatest risk in New
Mexico, followed by agricultural water users, as water is
increasingly transferred to maintain urban and industrial
users, whose economic productivity is greater. While
total annual economic losses are estimated in the vicinity of $300 million, under severe climate changes, where
runoff is reduced by nearly 30%, both economic and
non-economic losses are likely to be significantly higher.
This is due primarily to the effects of some strongly
optimistic model assumptions, e.g., assuming no conflicts over water rights or water transfers, and to several
significant and valuable omissions in the analysis, e.g.,
the environmental and social services that agriculture
and the environment provide.
INTRODUCTION
New Mexico has a unique blend of cultures and landscapes, of agrarian values and high-tech economies,
of rare ecosystems, fertile valleys and expansive desert
rangelands. It is a place where people have long settled
and where growing numbers still long to settle, as migration trends illustrate. New Mexico's growing communities are praised for their quality of life, climate and
retirement opportunities. The Rio Grande Valley, which
bisects New Mexico, has industry, tourism, residents
old and new, and agriculture, all of which stake claims
to water resources. These water resources must also
serve the traditions and economic needs of twenty-three
Native American tribes and pueblos, and flow through
traditional acequias—canals—felt by many to be the
lifeblood of four-hundred-year-old Hispanic communities. The Rio Grande is also home to endangered silvery
minnows in the last remnant of their historical habitat
and to flocks of migrating cranes and geese who gather
in vast numbers to rest and refuge in riparian bosques
(woodlands).
1 Respectively Associate Professor (bhurd@nmsu.edu), Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003, and Associate Professor (jcoonrod@
unm.edu). Department of Civil Engineering, MSC01 1070, University of
New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131.
Jo find more resources for your business, home, or family, visit the College of Agriculture and Home Economics on the
World Wide Web at www.cahe.nmsu.edu